Flood frequency analysis: The Bayesian choice
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis
Flood Frequency Analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the series of local streamflow. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model i...
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Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis, yet a risk analysis of the activity of FFA itself is rarely undertaken. The recent literature of FFA has been characterized by: (1) a proliferation of mathematical models, lacking theoretical hydrologic justification, but used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record; (2) official mandating of particular mode...
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[1] It is widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year to year shifts in flood risk distributions that arise due to changes in exogenous factors that affect the causal structure of flood risk. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to evaluate several factors ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: WIREs Water
سال: 2018
ISSN: 2049-1948,2049-1948
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1290